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There is no question that Gingrich has been coming on strong in the last week in South Carolina. His two debate performances, feisty, argumentative and confident in the extreme, have made people sit up and take notice (in a couple of cases, that should be stand up and notice, as in standing ovations). Not much has changed about Gingrich, it is mainly that people are seeing the choice boiling down to Romney and Gingrich and the deep south mentality of South Carolina clashes, in a major way, with the medium cool ex-governor from Massachusetts. To many in the south, Romney has major eastern politician written all over him, in the way he looks, the way he speaks and dresses and the way he has made piles of money.
Policy and ideas are secondary. Candidates rarely get applause for being calm and reasonable, especially in 2012, the season of the mad dog. What people are voting for more than anything else is someone who seems to represent their culture, their way of viewing life and, face it, their prejudices. Gingrich, from the neighboring state of Georgia (by way of Pennsylvania) fits the bill a whole lot better than Romney.
If Gingrich weren’t blowing off steam from the far right side of his brain, these voters would no more consider him presidential material than they would a well trained dog. As it is, they want to hire him to be president, to be the anti-Obama, to defeat mythical socialism, to defeat everything they’ve been told that Obama is, even if he’s none of those things. Doesn’t matter. They want him out.
In the last few weeks, there have been indications coming from some in the south, and in South Carolina, that Obama is getting blamed for causing the recession. How can that be? Well, the results started showing up around the time he became president, even though the housing collapse began around ‘06 and ‘07 and went into full scale meltdown in ‘08, the last year of the G. W. Bush presidency. The guy who is on the watch when you lose your job is the one responsible, right? Well, no, but it makes a good story and, apparently, a lot of people believe it. It would be interesting to know if far right radio and websites have been pushing this view. There are so many small stations scattered around the country, most of them blathering the right wing message, that it is impossible to know where stupid ideas get started.
What kind of fractured thinking is it that could blame Obama for the recession that began under Bush and was nurtured by Bush and Clinton’s deregulation policies? Again, doesn’t matter. Everything was “fine”, a Democrat got into the White House and it all went to hell. Obama is being blamed for everything but the weather and in a few minutes, someone will get around to that, too.
It does not matter what happens in Washington or across the nation, what matters is what people believe happened. There is an article in the Washington Post today (Saturday, 1.21.12) confirming what a lot believed previously: that many, if not most, Americans now get their news from sources which only confirm what they already think they know. The right reads and views right wing sources and the left views news sources thought to be more friendly to them.
In South Carolina, they consult websites that are biased, watch Fox News (a right wing plot if there ever was one) and discuss things only with those with whom they are likely to agree. The trend is even more pronounced in states of the old south, which have a hundreds years long tradition of excluding views from “outsiders” and “yankees” and, for most of the nation’s history, of having a controlled press that would, and could, only reflect the establishment’s viewpoints. The south operated on the principle for several hundred years that it was right about morality and the rest of the world was wrong and that exclusionary tendency continues. The south remains a world unto itself, even in 2012.
So, with a likely Gingrich win or a close 2nd, what happens? For one thing, Romney’s inevitability as the nominee goes to hell in about ten seconds flat. It is likely to be Gingrich and Romney for a much longer time, with Santorum bringing up the rear hoping the two of them will knock each other out. Gingrich has literally come back from the dead, so he can’t be counted out as the potential nominee. If enough people decide they can’t stomach Romney and show it at the polls, Gingrich could be the only one left standing.
More likely, we are in for a long, difficult battle that will further damage the Republican party and their chances of winning the White House. I wouldn’t even rule out the race coming down to Gingrich and Santorum, once the realization hits that Romney is not inevitable. It is much more probable, however, that Romney’s financial support and backing from old line, establishment Republicans will keep him in the game.
Doug Terry, 1.21.12
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